Dear {{first_name | Friend}},

(This FREE weekly newsletter, which goes out to more than 14,000 members, will from next week be delivered on a Saturday morning. I explain why below. Thank you for your forbearance as we try to make this club as welcoming and useful as possible!)

An old adage has it that the job of a pundit is not to predict the Future, but once the Future has become the Past, to explain why it was inevitable that the course of events should have unfolded as it did. I see my role with ARC as subtly different. Not to predict the Future, but to point to likelier versions of it, by looking at recent events and understanding the connection between them - that is, the trend lines, and the forces propelling them. 

In History, you see, there is no Future, only Futures, plural; but the deeper our understanding of recent History, the better we can plan for the version of the Future that eventually becomes the Past. So while avoiding predictions, I shall try to illuminate the probability of various Futures. Especially those that seem small in likelihood, but huge in consequence. And so it is that we come to Taiwan. 

I think the chances of China invading Taiwan, and therefore of World War Three beginning, have increased significantly. It is still unlikely. But this conflict in the seas off China’s south-east coast, long predicted, has grown much more plausible since the mid-term shellacking of Donald Trump, and we have therefore now entered a much more dangerous moment in global history. 

Taiwan is about 100 miles off the south-east of China, south of Japan and the Koreas, east of Hong Kong, and north of the Philippines. Oval in shape, it is around the size of the Netherlands: 245 miles long and 90 miles across. And it is very densely populated, with 23 million people (for reference, all of Australia has 28 million) despite two-thirds of the surface of the island being mountainous.

Its history is one of a struggle for independence against a variety of imperial powers. The Dutch had it for about 40 years in the 17th century, before the Chinese took it off them. The Japanese then took it off the Chinese in 1895 after the first Sino-Japanese war - but it was returned to China after the defeat of Japan in 1945. Then it gets even messier: when Communist armies took on Nationalists in the mainland and won, the Nationalists fled to Taiwan. And so an island that today asserts independence from China, was in living memory a refuge for its Nationalist faction.

Xi Jinping, China’s ruler, wants reunification. He believes in One China: a great and ancient civilisation that is stronger together. He believes regaining Taiwan is the “essence” of Chinese “rejuvenation” - and must be done by 2049, the centenary of the People’s Republic. The Taiwanese mostly want to be independent. And their desire for autonomy matters to us not just because we ought to respect the wishes of a noble people. It matters because Taiwan plays a very, very outsize role in the global economy and in the future of humanity, above all as home to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). 

Semiconductors, also known as chips, are the extraordinarily tiny and even more extraordinarily powerful processors within the computers that run the world - and power the AI boom. Astonishingly, 70% of all the world’s chips, and 90% of the world’s most advanced chips - the ones that all the top companies are fighting for - come from this one company. That makes it one of the most important institutions in the world - and makes a unique point of vulnerability in the global economy, the like of which we may never have seen.

If China invaded Taiwan and took control of TSMC, its impact on the global economy would make recent shocks like the Great Financial Crash appear a mere warm-up act. TSMC obviously makes control of Taiwan very, very attractive to China. And that, in turn, is because of a resource battle within the broader Cold War we are living in. 

In recent weeks, I have argued here and elsewhere that we are living in Cold War 2. Whereas Cold War 1 was, broadly, the US vs the USSR, and capitalism vs communism, Cold War 2 is, broadly, democracy vs autocracy, and the West vs an alliance of autocrats I call the CRINKlies: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, all except the last long since led by ageing men who won’t let go. 

But within this geopolitical conflict is a sub-plot: rare earth elements vs chips. China has masterfully commandeered control of those precious elements that most of us never think about, but which are critical to so many advanced products around the world. Terbium, which is used in the magnets vital for aerospace and green energy. Yttrium, used in lasers. Lutetium, used in petroleum refining. Dysprosium, used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and nuclear reactor control rods. There are just under 20 of them, and by some estimates, China controls around 90% of global separation and refining capacity. Control of these critical minerals, which are such critical components of so many modern technologies, has been a critical component of Chinese foreign policy in recent decades. 

But chips? Taiwan is the global leader in chips - and Taiwan sees itself as a democracy in the orbit of the West. If China could control Taiwan, and gain control of chips too, its economic and geopolitical heft would be transformed. 

Naturally, China would be mad to invade Taiwan. The single reason it hasn’t happened is that it is just very, very, very hard to do. The Taiwan Strait, at nearly 100 miles, is hellish for a military operation: the seas are often rough, the weather often terrible (with regular monsoons), and the distance gives Taiwan ample time to mobilise its exceptional drone defences. Moreover, the jagged shorelines of Taiwan’s West Coast are hellish for amphibious landing vehicles. And the volume of those needed to invade and occupy an island the size of Taiwan is immense. China’s military hasn’t fought a major war for seven decades. All of this makes a blockade that stops short of full invasion more plausible. 

And yet, and yet. Politics - power - of its very nature turns rational beings into irrational beasts. Xi, like Putin, is hyper-rational - just not in the service of liberal or democratic ideals; rather, in the service of a higher power, or idea: Chinese civilisation. 

And right now, there are several circumstances coalescing that might make Xi think this is his best chance. See it from his point of view. Born in 1953, he’s unlikely to make it to 2049. Next year, he begins his fourth 5-year term. He’s been talking about this, and dreaming of it, for decades. It’s a life goal. Right now, the moral and military exhaustion of the West is evident from the attritional war in Ukraine, which just goes on and on. 

Meanwhile, and crucially for Xi’s calculation, the US is distracted by Trump and Netanyahu’s war in Iran. Not only have they shifted huge amounts of naval power from the seas around China to the Strait of Hormuz, but their stockpiles have been massively depleted by the bombardment of Iran. Straining in the Middle East, and still required in Ukraine, America is much weaker militarily than it has been for a long time. 

And Trump, and Washington, are about to be consumed by a succession battle for the soul of the Republican Party, and maybe America. Trump shares some of Xi’s authoritarian instincts, is an unreliable partner for the Taiwanese, and is running out of time to extract all the advantages of power from his office. From Xi’s point of view, then, if not now, when?

It's not obvious that the astonishing fall of Jensen Huang, the Nvidia boss, after the revelation of his affair with Alice Huang (no relation), who might be a Chinese spy, will affect Xi's calculations. But the world's most valuable company was built around Mr Huang, its founder and only boss. He is to Nvidia as Steve Jobs was to Apple. With hundreds of billions of dollars wiped off its value, who knows, frankly, if Xi will think the sudden defenestration of an American leader of an American tech giant is yet another reason he should expedite his assault on the Taiwanese.

I don’t say it’s likely. I hope it doesn’t happen. But the invasion of Taiwan, a story long foretold, has become significantly more likely, and if it happens, World War Three will be upon us. 

Ok this bit is hard to write, because you might not like it. Sorry! But please hear me out. Because on balance I think you might be pleased. Here goes. 

We’re changing the time when we send out this newsletter, from 16.00 on a Friday, to 7am on a Saturday. 

I’ll always be transparent with you, and I must confess this is an experiment. 

The truth is - and it’s hard to talk about this stuff without being accused of blowing your own trumpet, but what’s a Founder to do? - we’ve had a phenomenal response to the launch of the ARC Club. More than 14,000 of you have subscribed to this newsletter; a very hefty chunk have become paying Members; and - trumpet-blowing alert - the engagement is extremely high. We can tell this from how many of you are opening the email (the vast majority!) and how many are clicking on links in it (ditto) or writing back. 

Thank you so, so much. 

It’s therefore a risk to change things. If it ain’t broke… etc. But starting a business is all about experimenting. And building a club is all about listening to the members. So the reason we’re changing to a Saturday is that, first, a bunch of you have written to say that’s when you’d prefer it. The second reason is that some of you said you don’t really mind, but Saturday morning is when you read it. Third, I just personally feel Friday afternoon isn’t the right moment. At 16.00 I’m usually contemplating which flavour of pasta to feed the kids, or the weekend logistics. Saturday morning, with that tangible fecundity, is when I want to read a column. I just have slightly more time then. When I was Editor of The Independent, I used to so love writing my ‘Letter from the Editor’ on Friday for Saturday. 

The final thing is, those of you who have kindly become paying members get a separate email on Saturday morning, giving you early access to our QUARC episode. I’m so acutely conscious of how precious your time is, and this new schedule means we can save you an email to open. That’s got to be a win. 

So… it’s not forever - *puts helmet on* - and if you really insist on Friday afternoons we can think about reverting. But from next week, Saturday at 7am it is!

A weekly selection of life-enhancing delights, curated by your humble correspondent, in response to popular demand. I think you will enjoy them.

Visit:

You know in adverts for restaurants or hotels or family getaways, you often get this scene where you’re fast approaching a door, and then a uniformed soul with a charming smile opens the doors for you, and you suddenly step into another world? That’s what it feels like to visit the revamped Simpsons-in-the-Strand. I just have so much respect and love for the restaurant trade, and Jeremy King is a giant of the industry. The restaurant goes back, in various forms, to 1828; and its history of silver trays, roast beef and chess has been re-imagined by Jeremy for the modern age. I don’t eat much meat, especially beef, but the roast is exceptional. And that feeling of escaping the hubbub of the city to enter a world that is both historic and very new is close to magic. 

Read:

Unicornia, by Ana Punset. As with every other parent or vaguely literary soul alive today, I’m terrified about the collapse of reading. I am bewitched by the idea of the ‘unlock’ book - the book or series that converts a kid from a non-reader to a reader. For my son, who is 10, it was Katherine Rundell’s Impossible Creatures. For my eldest daughter, who is 7, we’ve just had great joy with this series, starting with the first book, Learning to Fly, which as far as I’m concerned could be called Learning to Love Reading. I’ve read it with her, and it’s great. 

Watch:

There’s a new series of Colin from Accounts! It’s on iPlayer. This is perfect unwind television as far as I’m concerned. Waspish, suburban, inoffensive, easy-going Australian humour about an on-off romantic pairing, brought together by a dog. It’s a wonderful advert for comedy, and that unique, classless Australian relatability that I imbibed from Neighbours as a kid, and that instantly persuades you that, for the most part, to be born Down Under would be a tremendous stroke of luck. 

Listen:

I know this might seem very random, but when I go to Salford to film University Challenge, I often end up with the same cab driver. He’s from Cameroon. I won’t tell you his name (yet), because I haven’t asked his permission. He always, always listens to an artist called Oliver N’Goma, a Gabonese singer who died in 2010. I know this because I use the Shazam app to get all his songs (a wondrous technology that I still can’t quite believe my kids think is just normal). And I must say, I have rather fallen in love with Mr N’Goma’s voice and melodies. I run round Salford and Trafford with them pouring into my ears. Try Adia or Icole. Rhythmic, upbeat bliss, though I haven’t a clue what he’s saying. 

Over in the Members area of the ARC website, the benefits are rolling in, and we’re seeing great take up. Thank you! I fear I was a little too honest in the monthly Ask Me Anything episode, but thank you for your many brilliant questions. The behind-the-scenes stuff with King Kenny, he of Traitors fame, who is this week’s guest, is just hilarious. We weren’t expecting him to turn up with that!

In the next week or two, we’re going to start doing the merchandise from the shop, which is crazy to contemplate. The invitations to the digital meet and greet have gone out. And plans are afoot for a really quite monumental ARC party. Negroni and Pina Colada members qualify for tickets automatically; Margarita members get priority on the tickets when they’re released.

If you haven’t signed up for these perks and others, please don’t miss out - just hit the button below to upgrade. Remember: students can get an annual Margarita membership for a mere tenner. We call that tier Dark & Stormy, because that’s what a lot of students are. There’s also an option to give membership as a gift, if you know someone hoping for a visit from Santa.

Thank you so much for all your time and attention. Happy Friday! And remember, next week’s newsletter is out at 7am on Saturday. 

Yours ARCfully,

AMOL